The week’s Arctic news came from everywhere except the Arctic: a strait in the Persian Gulf, a stock listing in New York, and three capitals that still have not signed. The thread running through all of it is who gets to decide what happens in the North, and a sharpening insistence from Inuit leaders that the answer should be them.

01 · Shipping & Economy · Strait of Hormuz

Iran says the strait is closed, the United States says it is open, and most ships are staying home. The free-passage window lasts 60 days, and both Tehran and Washington are circling what comes after.

The memorandum signed June 17 promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days. Traffic ticked up for a day, then stalled: after Iran declared the strait closed again over the weekend over the fighting in Lebanon, transits fell to about a dozen ships on Sunday, many of them running dark, even as US Central Command insisted the waterway was open. Only a narrow channel is in use, insurers still price it as a war zone, and a UAE state oil estimate says full flows may not return until 2027.

The longer fight is over control. The deal hands the strait’s future administration to talks between Iran and Oman, and Iran is reported to be building a tiered system that charges some ships to pass. Its lead negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the strait “will be managed by Iran” and flew to Muscat to arrange it, while Trump has threatened that the United States will impose its own tolls and run the strait if the talks fail. The toll-free window runs 60 days. Who controls the passage after it, and who profits, is the contest now.

So what: For Western Alaska and every community that buys imported fuel, the chokepoint is nowhere near normal, and may not be for a year or more. Oil has eased off its wartime highs, but one weekend erased a week of progress, and this winter’s barge fuel is being priced inside that uncertainty.

Sources: CNBC, The Hill, House of Commons Library, CBS News.

02 · Minerals & Energy · Jameson Land, East Greenland

Greenland Energy says it is funded and ready to drill in 2026 near Ittoqqortoormiit. Greenland’s regulators say they have approved only landing the equipment.

The company, listed on Nasdaq and led by Texas oil executive Robert Price, has secured $70 million and a drilling agreement with Halliburton for two wells in the Jameson Land Basin, citing an independent estimate of 13 billion barrels. A 2008 USGS report put the odds of a technically recoverable find below 10%, and Greenland has never produced a commercial barrel or built the means to export one.

The clearest view of this on the ground came from Danwatch and Arctic Today, who followed Price to Ittoqqortoormiit, a hunting town of about 328 people. Residents had drawn up six demands before he arrived, packed a two-hour meeting, and pressed him on what would happen to their hunting grounds if oil were found; he declined to say, offering instead a local fund and about ten jobs.

So what: The Greenland oil story has moved from whether the rock holds oil to whether the people above it get a say. Watch the Mineral Resources Authority, which still cannot approve drilling, citing missing documentation, including an oil spill response plan.

Sources: Danwatch, Arctic Today, KNR, Maritime Executive.

03 · Policy & Minerals · Nunavut

The Recommended Nunavut Land Use Plan decides where mining and development can and cannot happen across the territory. It was handed to Ottawa, the Government of Nunavut, and Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated in 2023; none of the three has signed it, and a legal analysis from Friends of Land Use Planning argues the delay itself may breach the Nunavut Agreement.

While the plan waits, the map fills in. More than half of Nunavut’s mining claims have been staked since 2023, and roughly 15,000 square kilometers of them now sit inside areas the plan would protect, including caribou calving grounds.

So what: Every month, the plan goes unsigned, development facts get created on the ground that a signed plan was meant to prevent. The live question for Arctic minerals is whether the rules get set before the claims make them moot.

At a two-day Arctic sovereignty summit in Ottawa that wrapped up Friday, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami president Natan Obed said Inuit are being informed of decisions in their own homeland rather than included in them, citing Ottawa's announcement of major defense investments and a new network of Northern military hubs without deep consultation.

He warned of “the return of a territorial North, rather than an Inuit Nunangat North,” and said that if Canada will not treat Inuit as respected partners, Inuit may look for partners elsewhere.

~20% — the share of the world’s seaborne oil that normally crosses Hormuz. A week after the deal, transits are still a fraction of that, with one UAE estimate putting full recovery at 2027.

~13 billion barrels — the oil Greenland Energy claims at Jameson Land, against a USGS estimate putting the odds of a recoverable find below 10%.

328 — the residents of Ittoqqortoormiit, weighing a local fund and about ten jobs against the hunting grounds nearest the proposed drill site.

One fifth of Canada — the share of the country’s land mass governed by Nunavut’s unsigned land use plan, with about 15,000 square kilometers of mining claims already staked inside zones it would protect.

70,000 — the Inuit in Canada, whom ITK says Ottawa is sidelining on defense and governance decisions made in their own homeland.

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The Arctic Lead is an independent weekly brief on the money, policy, and security reshaping the Arctic. A portion of profits supports community wellness work across the North.